American Democracy will prevail
This article was written by Noah Arazi, Policy Fellow 2024-2025, and originally appeared in the Jewish Stand. The views in this article are the authors own.
President Trump has kept no secrets about his intention to concentrate power in the hands of the Executive and maximise the influence of the Presidency. Within the first two weeks of his second term, he issued over 75 Executive Orders. Furthermore, talk of ‘government efficiency’ can easily be interpreted as code for the delegation of power to a small group of loyal allies. The seismic impact of the Department of Government Efficiency has already been felt on the ground in Washington, with the proposed shutdown of USAID and asignificant exodus of various other federal employees.
To further compound matters, the GOP controls both Houses of Congress, which should supposedly allow Trump to work closely with his Republican colleagues in Congress, especially given that MAGA loyalists such as Mike Johnson command leadership positions on the Hill.
Trump will also be working alongside a deeply Conservative Supreme Court. During his first term, he successfully appointed three Conservative Justices in Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett.
On paper, there is no question that this does not bode well for American democracy. The stringent checks and balances outlined in the Constitution seem largely defunct in the face of Trump’s bold rhetoric. However, American democracy will prevail. Here’s why:
First, American political parties are both broad ideological camps and they lack discipline. History has taught us that whilst government trifectas certainly help a President usher their agenda through Congress, it is by no means a blank check to success. Looking back into the recent past, government trifectas have achieved mixed results. On the one hand, the Congress which convened during Obama’s first term was the most productive Congress since 1965.This paved the way for the passing of various pieces of seminal legislation such as the Affordable Care Act. In contrast, Congress during President Trump’s first term was largelyunproductive. He abjectly failed to achieve his two big Congressional priorities. Having come into office pledging to rip apart the Affordable Care Act, federal judges and Congressional challenges repeatedly stood in his way, as the core components of Obamacare remained intact. Furthermore, his failure to obtain border-wall funding from Congress resulted in the longest government shutdown in history. Therefore, Trump’s attempts to wrestle with Congress in his first term were mired by failure, as key campaign pledges failed to materialise in the face of resistance from the Hill.
This time around, Trump is bound to experience many of the same difficulties as his first term. The Republicans have the smallest margin of control in modern history with slim majorities in both the House and the Senate. Whilst the current ideological composure of the GOP does largely swing in favour of the ‘MAGA agenda’, there are several Congressional Republicans who have conflicted with President Trump in the past. We only need to look as far as Senate Majority leader, John Thune, to demonstrate this. After his refusal to challenge the 2020 Presidential election results, Trump actively called for then South Dakota Governor, Kristi Noem to challenge Thune in the state’s primary. Furthermore, there are still some more moderate Republicans in the Senate such as Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Bill Cassidy.The former two have already proven their willingness to stand up to President Trump after they decided to vote against the appointment of Pete Hegseth as Defence Secretary. Given that the Republican majority in the Senate is so slim, Trump is bound to face challenges from within his own party. It is important to make a clear distinction between the aims of the Trump Administration and the aims of a diverse group of Congressional Republicans.
However, beyond Congress, the ultimate check and balance on Trump’s Presidential power will come from the Supreme Court. Yes, the Supreme Court is deeply conservative, but this does not mean that it will be a loyal servant to the ‘MAGA agenda.’ Much can be discerned between the court’s deeply originalist interpretation of the constitution and Trump’s clear lack of understanding of the bandwidth of the constitution. In his first term, Trump faced a series of challenges from the Supreme Court despite its Conservative lean. This included the court’s finding that the Department of Commerce acted improperly in adding a question about citizenship to the 2020 consensus forms and their decision to challenge Trump’s rescindment of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme. Within the first fifty days of his second term, Trump’s own Supreme Court appointee, Amy Coney-Barret has voted alongside the court’s liberals to reject his attempt to freeze nearly $2 billion in foreign aid. To think that the court will merely suck up to Trump is a lazy conclusion. They have a clear obligation to uphold the constitution regardless of who controls the executive branch,meaning that Trump is bound to come into conflict with the court on a frequent basis across his second tenure.
As for Trump’s unelected Cabinet, the notion that they are simply able to execute a ‘MAGA agenda’ without any form of oversight is a fallacy. As a pliant of the executive branch, Cabinet members are frequently held accountable by Congress in several different ways. One of the most notable measures is through the use of Congressional Committees. A Committee’s ability to investigate the executive branch is both substantial and wide-ranging. Just take the House’s Foreign Affairs Committee’s hearing on Anthony Blinken’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan as an example. The Committee was in conflict with the State Department over this matter for several years, and eventually the Secretary of State was summoned by the committee where he was met by a series of subpoenaed records which significantly undermined his political credibility. The extensive powers afforded to Congressional Committees will no doubt catch up with Trump’s Cabinet members as their every move is scrutinised.
Whilst President Trump may give off the appearance of omnipotence, this will soon wear off. It will not be long before the new presidential administration hits political reality in Washington. Despite the existence of a government trifecta, Congress still possesses strong mechanisms that can hold the President to account. Furthermore, the extensive checks and balances laid out in the American constitution will no doubt sober the bold ambitions of President Trump. American democracy will prevail.
