A painful peace or a fatal blink: Europe must help to enforce Trump’s Ukraine ceasefire

By Amar Singh Bhandal, Policy Fellow 2025-26. This article originally appeared in LBC.

While the eventual ceasefire negotiated by President Trump is likely to be painful and imperfect for Ukraine, requiring the cessation of territory in the East, the crucial determiner of success is whether security guarantees for Kyiv are solid promises, backed up with force, rather than fluff.

Whether this becomes a lasting peace or a dangerous appeasement depends on Europe, not Washington.

In the next few weeks, a ceasefire is likely to be agreed that halts the fighting in Ukraine, where almost four years of war has already cost hundreds of thousands of lives. In ten years, will we look back on this juncture as the moment peace was finally secured, or as the moment the West fatally blinked?

Despite the momentum of President Trump’s assertive second-term foreign policy, it will be Europe, not the United States, that determines whether this ceasefire will restrain Russian aggression.

The security guarantees needed to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty will not come from a US-led NATO framework, however often that goal has been asserted.

They will have to come from within Europe itself. A European coalition of the willing must be prepared to enforce the ceasefire, with troops on the ground.

This ceasefire will likely be deeply, almost unacceptably, painful for Ukraine. Every Ukrainian family has borne the cost of Russia’s war of aggression and has every moral right to reject the loss of sovereign territory.

Yet, the grim reality is that the piecemeal Russian advance through Donetsk and Luhansk continues. Trump’s refusal to supply Tomahawk missiles means Ukraine cannot strike deep behind Russian lines to disrupt logistics and operational command structures.

Meanwhile, the mechanical wail of air raid sirens still haunts Ukrainians in Kyiv and elsewhere, with millions of civilians spending their Christmas sheltering from incoming missiles.

At the same time, President Trump’s attention is more divided than ever, and his foreign policy instinct remains, at its core, transactional.

From regime change in Venezuela to Iran, Gaza to the icy terrain of Greenland, which Trump has openly set his sights on, Ukraine is just one file among many.

Europe cannot subcontract Ukraine’s security to an administration contented with Putin’s signature on a piece of paper, written, as history tells us, in disappearing ink. It is unrealistic to suggest Trump will sustain pressure on Moscow once a ceasefire is signed.

The risk is obvious: a ceasefire that is merely a tactical pause in violence to allow Russia to recuperate, not a meaningful end to the war.

Russia has perfected a playbook of aggression without consequence. Under Biden, hesitant sanctions and cautious military support were shaped by an exaggerated fear of Russian nuclear escalation.

Now, Trump is seeking the reintegration of Putin and Russia into the international system once the deal is done. Europe must retain a long-term overview. It is paramount that we understand a future resumption of hostilities would probably take the form of grey-zone hostility, meaning that ambiguity and misplaced optimism could prevent the United States supporting a European response.

Russia is more likely to resume hostilities through its proxies and mercenary organisations, focussing on sabotage and destabilisation, alongside sustained cognitive warfare.

Any ceasefire that fails to prepare for Russian tanks once again rolling across Europe’s borders seriously misunderstands Russian strategy and fails to learn the lessons of this war.

This is why Europe must dispel any fatigue, and act boldly now. A coalition led by Britain and France should place troops in Ukraine as a tripwire force, not to fight Russia, but to ensure that violations are not tolerated.

By permanently and significantly raising the cost to Putin of any renewed aggression, making clear our commitment to Ukraine’s future, Europe can give Ukrainians the confidence to rebuild their country and their lives. In doing so, Britain and France would be demonstrating strategic seriousness and foreign policy flexibility beyond blind reliance on the transatlantic alliance.

The end of the Ukraine war will be watched far beyond Europe, from Beijing to Ankara. It must be clear that even in an era of American ambivalence, borders still matter and aggression is not rewarded.

Europe must enforce a ceasefire not out of charity for the Ukrainian people, who are certainly deserving of it, but out of deterrence.

Any ceasefire must secure Ukraine, and defend and restore the values on which Europe, and its greatest nations, stand.